Xbox 2025 predictions and overview: Microsoft's most promising games line up in history meets a platform under duress

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OPINION: Microsoft has turned its gaming operation into a duality of boom and bust. Which one will win out?

Xbox in a field
Xbox finds itself in something of a cross roads in 2025. (Image credit: Windows Central)

2025 is finally here, and for Xbox fans, that marks another year of dualities.

Microsoft is likely to have its most potent year in first-party content in history. After almost a decade of requests from Xbox fans, Microsoft's acquisition spree is finally starting to bear fruit. Indiana Jones was a game of the year-worthy entry late last year. Second-party publishing scored major wins with STALKER 2 and Palworld. Long-time holdouts like Genshin Impact, Final Fantasy Pixel Remaster Collection, and even Death Stranding arrived on Xbox. Combine all of that with a solid content output from Blizzard, Activision, Bethesda, and Xbox Game Studios, and 2024 was a pretty great year for raw games.

But there was a major elephant in the room to contest with as well.

Microsoft betrayed previous comments about Xbox exclusive games by effectively admitting that the console platform is no longer big enough to sustain its operation. As such, more and more Xbox games have begun hitting PlayStation, leaving Xbox fans to wonder if Microsoft even has a future as a platform holder. I suspect 2025 will continue to generate such questions.

Let's dive into some 2025 predictions and not-so-predictions for the Xbox platform, and what its future might look like.

More content than ever for Xbox, and more content than ever outside of Xbox

Xbox Series X, Xbox Series S

Xbox hardware isn't selling. (Image credit: Microsoft)

It's a strange duality Microsoft now finds itself in. It now has the biggest mobile games, the biggest shooter service game, the biggest MMORPG, and various other billion dollar franchises under its belt. The Activision-Blizzard acquisition was supposed to be a major coup for Xbox, giving it command of some of the largest entertainment brands in history, but so far, it hasn't led to the renaissance for Xbox many of its customers were hoping for.

Most people accepted that Activision-Blizzard was too large to truly result in exclusive content for Xbox console players. But few could've predicted that the acquisition would lead to Xbox practically losing all exclusive games in the process. Indeed, as I wrote this past week, Xbox is preparing to send Halo, Gears of War, and various other exclusives to PlayStation and the Nintendo Switch 2. It comes after comments from Xbox CEO Phil Spencer that denoted how important exclusive games were to Xbox. Spencer acknowledged previously that Sony uses the money it generates from sales of games like Minecraft to buy exclusivity on popular games like Silent Hill 2, Stellar Blade, and potentially Black Myth Wukong. Spencer also previously said that Xbox fans deserve clarity on what games will, or won't be exclusive. He also said specifically that it "wouldn't be Indiana Jones" going multiplatform, just months until it was announced that Indiana Jones is indeed going multiplatform. So what's going on here exactly?

Xbox like most large companies operate on future projections, and most projections revolving around the game industry all up, especially consoles, isn't exactly hot right now. Xbox is lowest on the rung, and is suffering more than most, with near free-fall hardware declines quarter over quarter practically since the Xbox Series X|S platform ended its initial launch wave. Hardware figures don't tell the full story though. The addressable audience for console gaming isn't growing as rapidly as costs have been growing, which has forced Xbox to find alternative revenue streams. This has included Steam and the Microsoft Store so far, but in 2025, will include PlayStation more so than ever before. Iconic franchises like Halo going to PlayStation is a watershed moment for Xbox as a platform, leading it into an uncertain future.

So for 2025, you should probably expect further hardware declines year-over-year, accelerating Microsoft's "Project Latitude" strategy. More games will head over to PlayStation 5 and Nintendo Switch 2 as a result, as Microsoft seeks to find new users regardless of where they are. The cost of user acquisition into the Xbox hardware ecosystem has simply become higher than the cost of supporting PlayStation, at least in the short term. But that doesn't mean current Xbox hardware customers are set to lose out.

Microsoft will still have some Xbox exclusives to reveal this year too, even if some of them are at least "timed" exclusives. Microsoft has its Xbox Developer_Direct on January 23rd, with DOOM: The Dark Ages, South of Midnight, and Clair Obscur: Expedition 33. There's also a mysterious fourth game, and I won't spoil what it is, but our sources indicate that it is a new entry in a legendary Japanese IP which has decades of history, and should make a lot of fans happy. Indeed, Microsoft has won some strong support from the region lately from studios like Square Enix for Final Fantasy, HoYoverse for Genshin Impact, and Sega/ATLUS for Persona, and we suspect this new game will help further that trend.

Microsoft should have its strongest and most powerful line-up in history for 2025, but its unlikely to deliver any strong bump to its hardware footprint, which creates concern for the long-term viability of the Xbox hardware platform. But, what if it merged with Windows itself?

With divided attention, Xbox is becoming a jack of all trades, but will it also end up as a master of none?

A white Lenovo Legion Go S (Windows) next to a black Legion Go S (SteamOS).

Lenovo's new Legion Go devices made a splash at CES 2025. (Image credit: Rebecca Spear / Windows Central)

At CES 2025, Microsoft's VP of Next Gen Jason Ronald appeared alongside Lenovo and Valve to discuss one of gaming's most intriguing hardware categories of recent times, the PC gaming handheld. The big issue here is that Windows just isn't designed for handheld controller use, with the vast majority of the shell expecting there to be a mouse present. This has given the Steam Deck and new third-party Steam OS devices a clear win in the usability arena, even if Microsoft can boast stronger compatibility. Getting things like PC Game Pass on a Steam Deck, or games delivered by third-party launchers like Genshin Impact or Fortnite, is generally a bit of a headache.

GUIDE: How to install Windows on a Steam Deck

Microsoft aims to boost the usability of Windows on devices like this throughout 2025 with a variety of updates to things like the Xbox Game Bar and so on. But perhaps Microsoft is gearing up to go further, and truly bridge the gap between Xbox and PC in a way we previously thought impossible.

"Xbox Play Anywhere" is one of the Xbox platforms most underrated features, giving you the ability to buy a game once, and play it across both PC and Xbox consoles on a single license. That now also includes Xbox Cloud Gaming as well, truly offering a universal plug-and-play experience that Steam is only just beginning to match. There's a race underway to truly deliver that "gaming everywhere" experience between Xbox and Steam to that end, and we'll likely see both players double and triple down on accommodations for both players and developers towards getting there first.

A Steam Deck with the Steam Replay 2024 banner.

Steam OS is becoming something of an existential threat to Windows, and the competition should lead to a better Windows product in 2025 and beyond. (Image credit: Rebecca Spear / Windows Central)

While Xbox hardware has seen sales declines, Microsoft's total users on console remain steady according to Xbox lead Phil Spencer. Microsoft also has other ways it can grow total addressable users within the Xbox ecosystem, though. I've heard that Xbox Cloud Gaming, which are technically Xbox console users, recently hit a new usage milestone. Microsoft is also working on expanding Xbox Cloud Gaming too, adding things like 4K streaming, higher bitrates, PC game support, and more buy-to-own Xbox cloud games, with semi-regular content drops as it expands its network storage capacity. Microsoft is also allocating more silicon to meet demand for Xbox Cloud Gaming, which continues to see strong growth in markets where console hardware is considered a higher-end luxury.

But I keep asking myself, can Xbox really serve all these different goals simultaneously without underserving its existing users? While chasing new users over on PC and across cloud devices like the newly announced partnership with LG TV and Amazon Fire Stick, are Xbox Series X|S console users currently satisfied with their experience? Do potential new customers see Xbox Series X|S consoles as a decent option over Steam Decks, PlayStations, and other devices? I suspect that Xbox will begin teasing its hardware aspirations more strongly this year, partially to head off rumors that it could "exit" console hardware, but also to remind fans that it is well and truly working on new innovations.

Microsoft is also known to be heavily exploring AI for Xbox, whether both in game development scenarios or for gameplay reasons. We saw that today, Microsoft filed a patent for generative AI in games like Minecraft, for example. I've also heard that Microsoft is exploring how AI can help deliver the rendering pipeline for the games themselves, potentially to help offset latency issues with cloud gaming. While many core gamers roll their eyes at the mere mention of generative AI, it's likely that tomorrow's gamers who grow up with the technology likely won't care how or when their games are produced. Someone is going to figure out how to make this work in a gaming context, and Microsoft would rather it was them, instead of the likes of xAI or Meta or arch-rival Google.

We got hints that Xbox's "Sebile" haptics controller is still in development, and Phil Spencer himself said that the firm is working on an Xbox handheld of its own. Will the handheld run the Xbox OS though, or Windows itself? Microsoft's Xbox store has thousands of games, thousands more than the PC Microsoft Store. Microsoft doesn't necessarily have the licenses to sell PC versions of those Xbox games, though, unless it is building some form of emulation layer. But wouldn't that potentially throw up contractual issues with publishers too? But if the handheld is simply a Windows-based device, why bother stepping on the toes of their OEM partners like Lenovo and the like? I predict we'll get some answers on where Xbox is taking its existing users to that end — I definitely don't want my hundreds of digital Xbox titles to get orphaned on a platform that doesn't have a future.

An Xbox balancing act

Xbox Series X

An odd future for Xbox. (Image credit: Microsoft)

Indeed, It's a huge balancing act Microsoft is trying to pull off here, between building platforms for mobile, cloud, PC, while keeping existing users happy. I think on content, Xbox will likely have its best year ever fpr upcoming games. On platform, I'm expecting more confusion and concerns for the Xbox hardware ecosystem's future. I do love the vision of "Xbox everywhere," but the execution needs to be flawless, both for developers and customers.

What are your big predictions for Xbox in 2025? What do you want to see from Xbox in 2025? Hit the comments, let us know.

Read more: On Xbox's strange future

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Jez Corden
Jez Corden
Executive Editor

Jez Corden is the Executive Editor at Windows Central, focusing primarily on all things Xbox and gaming. Jez is known for breaking exclusive news and analysis as relates to the Microsoft ecosystem while being powered by tea. Follow on Twitter (X) and Threads, and listen to his XB2 Podcast, all about, you guessed it, Xbox!

2 Comments Comment from the forums
  • Lurking_Lurker_Lurks
    I always argue and still firmly believe that the woes Xbox hardware is facing comes from marketing and messaging and how Xbox presents itself as a brand.

    On paper Xbox should be leading the charge in console sales this generation. I do not think that means stealing consumers from Nintendo or Playstation because the console userbases seem pretty set (both in terms of digital library and where they are happy playing); I mean that Xbox should have seen a surge of brand new consumers in the console market. There are a lot of reasons why Xbox should've helped bring console gaming into the zeitgeist this generation including its massive "play anywhere" ecosystem. To most of the world, owning solid hardware that can play games seamlessly between said hardware (console), PC, and Cloud isn't a downside in proposition. People forget that PS Now offered PS gamers cloud gaming on Sony TVs and PC in addition to PS4 consoles before Xbox Game Pass was even a subscription service on Xbox. I was specifically a teenager who convinced his family to buy a Sony TV for that singular reason. PS Now was just such a bad experience and overpriced service that Sony tried to disassociate with it as much as possible until they killed the name entirely. Now Xbox DID NOT start this generation with a good showing for their PC and Cloud experiences (and both still aren't to snuff), but it still remains that Xbox currently offers new consumers a level of value and control over their gaming experience and overall ecosystem that isn't matched by any other console.

    A different more aggressive Xbox marketing strategy this generation would hammer their console competitors for not offering free cloud saves, a feature that is standard on PC and even has some publishers like Ubisoft take it into their own hands to have free cross platform cloud saves. At the same time Xbox could hammer home how they are the only console to offer free cloud saves which encompasses Xbox Play Anywhere games on PC and any GPU games played on the cloud. A different Xbox marketing strategy could focus on the Xbox Series S's size and low price point makes it the perfect entry level gaming console. I think the Xbox One marketing traumatized them, because the Series S would be perfect to market to families who want a "home entertainment box". It's crazy how much the Xbox One dropped the ball, because now every console just has all the streaming apps and your near entire digital movie library just follows you with Movies Anywhere. The Series S as Xbox's smallest console with a starting price as low as the original Xbox (without inflation) that frequently dropped to $200 and could both play all new games and games across the 3 previous Xbox generations and had access to all the movies and TV one could ask for, should've taken the world by storm. To it's credit it started to sound like it would as the Series S led this Xbox gen as the fastest selling consoles on the market and Microsoft reported that most Series S buyers were brand new to the Xbox ecosystem. But at some point really early on (like 2022/2023), they just gave up with marketing for both consoles. Even now the new editions have been launched with zero actual marketing other than saying "Hey these are here: go buy them." As a result, no one is really interested. The Series X has even overtaken the Series S as sale prices deepen and the Series S becomes a punching bag for people who want to blame it for their dissatisfaction with this generation.

    I do think on PC and Cloud Xbox plans to at best offer a solid standard experience. That is to say, unless something majorly changes I don't even Xbox thinks they can be the "master" in either avenue. They aren't going to reach the quality of GFN unless they pivot to PC infrastructure for the service and charge out the wazoo in terms of pricing (this would also mean dropping the subscription library aspect of Game Pass or charging an additional premium for it). There's a very unlikely chance of them matching or even surpassing Steam at least in terms of the quality of their storefront and launcher, but that's only IF Microsoft gets the entire Windows team behind it and pours a LOT of resources into the endeavor. I do think we'll see some of this and the Xbox experience on Windows improve (which has been directly stated now as well), but Microsoft is unlikely to reach Steam. No console experience is even at Steam's level and Xbox's Microsoft Store is trash in more ways than just gaming. That said and speaking of consoles, Xbox doesn't exactly offer a significantly worse experience than their brethren. In fact, in a lot of ways they offer a better one (like free cloud saves and backwards compatibility and the best library subscription service). Xbox's real mistake this generation was not making the user experience look shiny and new. You could also argue the Dual Sense over took the Xbox controller, but everyone like unanimously agreed that Xbox had the best controller last gen and it really did not win any wars. I think for their users and the console space as a whole, Xbox went with a strategy of keeping language and interfaces consistent with the updated Xbox One UI & UX, which just failed to market to their users why they should upgrade (among other things). Which granted maybe that was the strategy as truly generations mattered less this time around. If Xbox still takes losses from each individual console sale, then why even try to make people upgrade if they'll just keep playing the same games? Sony had already started selling consoles at cost, so they had reason to push for upgrades. The end result however has just made the Xbox brand overall look weaker.

    It is said as much in this article as well to an extent, but really on paper why is Xbox hardware declining? Yes they've pushed for a more multiplatform strategy, but every publisher that isn't controlling costs and wants to grow is (as in expect for Nintendo), which includes Sony. At the end of the day Xbox as a console has gained more former exclusives and more day one titles than it even COULD lose in its own exclusive lineup. A wider ecosystem offers more value for consumers not less. The console market as a whole has been stagnant for multiple generations now made evident by the Nintendo Switch's massive success, which is just the console hitting about the same peak that the PS2 did nearly 2 decades ago. There's no answer for me as to why Xbox is suffering other than a failure of marketing and messaging. In a console market entreached in decades of "console wars" having gamers use exclusives as weapons against other gamers (which is so very sad), Xbox has done nothing to change this narrative as they lead the charge in changing the landscape. The only clear interview, I've seen of Xbox proving why a multiplatform strategy benefits all console gamers is a variety interview with Matt Booty very much aimed at the business world. In it he described how Sea of Thieves on Playstation has led to increased engagement on Xbox and PC on top of bringing the game to a whole new platform of gamers. Xbox hasn't publicly presented this stance though. All they've done publicly is damage control, which has only really resulted in consumers burnt by companies in the past to double down that Xbox is abandoning hardware. "Microsoft is testing the waters" gets thrown around (I know you've said it earlier), but the issue with that is people come to their own conclusions when Microsoft doesn't clearly present their findings. This isn't some controlled focus group environment. We can also go back and show Xbox leadership saying the exact opposite to what they are doing as recent as the 2023 court case. Gamers particularly love the quote that Xbox leadership said Song will use the money they earn from Xbox first party games on PS to hurt Xbox.

    It has gone from mixed messaging to a failure to communicate entirely and marketing for consoles has all but disappeared. It is my own personal hopium that rumors are indeed true and Xbox is planning an early new hardware generation in 2026, because that would explain why they stopped really marketing the Series consoles so soon after release. However, even if that's true, Xbox might suffer irreparable brand damage in terms of the value of their console hardware in the eyes of consumers.
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  • Papictu
    For me 2024 has been the worst year in Xbox history, it has lost its already low competitiveness, with dozens of games skipping the platform or arriving later, and with own games not bringing value to having an Xbox, there is nothing left to have an Xbox for, well, there is Gamepass, but it is far from enough.

    My feeling is that I think there are certain people making decisions in Xbox who have not touched a game in their life, they do more to please shareholders than users, and I think this will doom the brand to its destruction, while companies like Valve or Nintendo are turning their efforts to excite their users. I wish the purchase of Activision Blizzard would never have been completed... Xbox was much better when it went unnoticed as a “small” business in a huge company.

    Let's see what awaits us in 2025, the damage to the brand is being huge, but maybe this year there will be better news, maybe Xbox is in the hands of incompetents, or maybe from my position I don't see things that they do, time will tell, but Xbox Series can hardly avoid being remembered as the worst Xbox ever.
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