OPINION: After a year of confusion, Xbox is closing out 2024 with a ton of momentum, and plenty of cause for optimism

Xbox has had a tumultuous year of ups and downs, but it's closing out 2024 on quite a high note, giving it some potent momentum into 2025.

This time last year, rumors began to coalesce that Xbox was exploring placing its console exclusives onto arch-rival PlayStation. The rumors set the internet ablaze, my initial reaction was to not believe it — Xbox has often been the target of false rumors. However, this one turned out to be true. Microsoft later formally announced Sea of Thieves, Pentiment, Hi-Fi Rush, and Grounded would be making their way across to PlayStation and in some cases Nintendo Switch too. More are almost certainly on the way as well, which has fed continuing doubts about whether or not this was a healthy strategy for the Xbox ecosystem.

Given Microsoft's history for shutting down popular consumer products and services, this announcement sent shockwaves through the Xbox community. Was this the beginning of a broader capitulation to PlayStation? An exit from Xbox console hardware all together? Why would developers continue to support Xbox if nobody wants to buy into the ecosystem? It remains to be seen what the full long-term impact of Xbox's strategy might be, but it could also just be the inevitable future of the game industry. Perhaps Microsoft is just getting ahead of the curve. Indeed, Valve's Steam Deck platform is console-like in nature, but sports games from both PlayStation and Xbox, rendering the argument on Xbox's side a tad moot.

In any case, many of the initial fears have not come to pass. Developers commonly associated with PlayStation seem to be supporting Xbox more, not less, than ever. Xbox has announced record user engagement on console specifically almost every quarter since then. And Xbox also is also finally hitting its stride with first party games. We're new hardware announcements away from essentially being able to say "it's business as usual" for Xbox, although there remain significant challenges within the gaming industry that Microsoft will still need to navigate carefully — and none of it is without risk.

Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 shuts down Xbox Game Pass critics

There were some big questions about Microsoft's strategy for what is now arguably it's most important franchise this side of Minecraft.

Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 has had one of the longest development cycles in the storied franchise's history, and the quality speaks for itself. Winning some of the highest praise the IP has seen in years, Call of Duty broke records for Microsoft's Activision arm, in the first sign that the massive Microsoft-Activision $72 billion acquisition was right on the money.

"Last week's launch of [Call of Duty: Black Ops 6] was the biggest Call of Duty release ever, setting a record for day one players as well as Game Pass subscriber adds on launch day," Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella noted. Other sources such as Mat Piscatella over at industry tracker Circana stated that well over half of Xbox players had engaged with Call of Duty in the United States, and over a third on PlayStation.

Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 has raised the quality bar somewhat for the game overall, launching in a polished state, while also bursting at the seams with content. A game of Call of Duty's size and cadence is also monstrously expensive to develop and maintain, which is why some outlets and commentators raised questions about Microsoft's strategy to put it into Xbox Game Pass on day one. In Game Pass, it would allow millions of players on PC and Xbox consoles to bypass the typical $70 upfront cost, instead opting in via a $20 per month Xbox Game Pass Ultimate subscription, or a $12 per month PC Game Pass subscription.

I think Microsoft will be monitoring how Call of Duty Xbox Game Pass players behave in the coming months, because ultimately, if 100% of those players buy a month's worth of Xbox Game Pass, purchase zero microtransactions, and then bounce out of the game — it would perhaps hit the game's bottom line on Xbox's own ecosystem. However, it's unlikely that will be the case.

Microsoft is delivering Stalker 2 and Indiana Jones towards the end of this month, giving users a strong incentive to remain with the service even if they grow tired of Call of Duty as November wanes. There's also every likelihood that Call of Duty will behave like a "free to play" game, where improved access just leads to increased virality and thus increased in-game purchasing. Comments made by Miles Leslie, game director at Treyarch, indicate that Game Pass has been beneficial for the game. "What we've seen is it's allowed people that might have been on the fence, might have had some of that friction, might have been like, 'I haven't played in a while' to actually come back and try the game."

Speaking for myself, I feel as though I fit into that cohort quite nicely, as do most of my friends — people of a certain age that had to endure several lacklustre iterations of Call of Duty might not feel like risking $70 to find out if it's more of the same. But Black Ops 6 has been well and truly a return to form, and it has been more accessible than ever thanks to Xbox Game Pass. So far, there's absolutely no reason to think some of the "doom and gloom" apocalyptic Call of Duty Game Pass scenarios will materialize beyond angry social media discourse — indeed, from what my sources tell me, Xbox's ecosystem is currently the lead platform for Call of Duty Black Ops 6 engagement, despite also seeing massive growth on PlayStation and Steam.

Game publishers flock to Xbox, despite years of uncertainty

Further questions over Xbox's strategy don't seem to have disuaded developers from supporting team green, as evidenced by a variety of fresh third-party support throughout the summer and into the fall.

I wrote an article decrying Capcom for opting against bringing its classic fighting game collections to Xbox, despite the fact many of them launched on the OG Xbox or Xbox 360. The discourse immediately shifted to questions over whether or not developers were arbitrarily skipping Xbox, due to a perceived lack of engagement or users. After doing some digging, I discovered some of the ports were being held back by technical reasons, a fact Capcom itself confirmed when it revealed that it is bringing their classic games to Xbox.

It feels like Xbox has been working tirelessly to ensure that Xbox customers aren't treated as second class citizens by major third-party publishers, and the work seems to be paying off in droves. Almost soon as I'd penned an article blasting Microsoft for failing to land Genshin Impact — Genshin Impact was announced for Xbox. I wrote previously my frustrations on Square Enix not supporting Xbox with its nostalgic Final Fantasy franchise, and we've seen Final Fantasy Pixel Remasters hit Xbox consoles, and a confirmation that Final Fantasy 16 is on the way for Xbox too.

Final Fantasy producer Naoki Yoshida and Mistwalker producer Hironobu Sakaguchi recently described in an interview how the upcoming RPG Fantasian Neo Dimension has adopted a multi-platform approach to include Xbox specifically, to reach a broader audience.

Perhaps the biggest coup of recent times, though, has been Death Stranding. Death Stranding was published by PlayStation when it launched originally five years ago, and the Hideo Kojima-made title was the first his studio penned after leaving Konami and the famed Metal Gear franchise behind. Xbox fans had lamented that Hideo Kojima's titles might forever eschew Xbox, but despite everything, Death Stranding hit Xbox just last week. The game immediately hit #2 on the best-sellers list behind Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 itself.

Recent comments from SEGA and others increasingly suggest the era of platform exclusivity may be waning. In a report to investors this month, SEGA specifically touted its multiplatform approach and global simultaneous launch strategy for the recent successes of games like Metaphor Re: Fantazio and its Yakuza series. Square Enix also commented that it hopes to emulate the strategy, after years of depending on PlayStation-specific development cycles that have led to PC versions of its games seeing months, and even years-long delays — long after the marketing and hype cycles have passed.

Indeed, to cut through algorithmic discourse, putting games on as many platforms as possible to generate conversations with as many people as possible has become a cornerstone of modern game discovery. PlayStation has joined Xbox in putting its games on PC in recent year. It's probably only a matter of time before they start doing day and date launches on PC as well, to maximize the return on marketing investments.

Despite the churn in the industry and evolving user habits, Xbox has still managed to receive increased support from major developers. Zenless Zone Zero, a current PlayStation console exclusive, is rumored to be hitting Xbox as soon as December. Our sources familiar with internal Xbox trends told me that third-party transactions are up year-over-year. With comments from Xbox CEO Phil Spencer and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella indicating that Xbox consoles are enjoying record engagement too, it paints a picture of a healthy, thriving ecosystem for game developers. But for customers, I would argue that there's still plenty of work to be done. Xbox has missed out on games like Black Myth Wukong and Silent Hill 2, the former of which was credited in PlayStation's quarterly earnings report as helping boost its margins.

When competing at a platform level, at the very least, timed exclusive games seemingly still have a role to play. If Sony is doing them, then so too must Microsoft, lest they paint a picture of a platform where Xbox customers are second-rate. Thankfully, Microsoft seems to be hitting its stride for home-grown Xbox games too.

STALKER 2 and Indiana Jones deliver a one-two holiday punch for Xbox

I would say that Xbox is still regarded as a platform that has weaker exclusive games than its competitors, Nintendo and PlayStation both. That seemingly hasn't stopped the console from enjoying "record" engagement, despite a decrease in new players entering the ecosystem in favor of PC and smart devices. Indeed, PlayStation and Nintendo both reported year over year console hardware sales declines. The traditional console market has hit a saturation point ahead of what will likely be the slow roll-out of a new generation with the Nintendo Switch 2 in 2025, with the possibility of an Xbox handheld on the horizon as well.

Hardware sales will likely continue to fluctuate and oscillate in an irregular way for the foreseeable future, as video game consoles take on a more fluid, smartphone-like generational approach moving forward. Major games and service titles continue to be updated for PS4 and Xbox One, eliminating the need for many to even consider upgrading. The same will be true for the PS5 and Xbox Series X|S as well, but even for users who stay behind, a compelling line-up of games will be paramount to prevent subscriber churn. Microsoft has a strong slate on the docket.

Starting with STALKER 2 on November 20, 2024, as well as a big Xbox Game Pass tie-in for Genshin Impact, Xbox has a fantastic couple of reasons to keep the subscription there for users that have somehow managed to exhaust the current library. I played STALKER 2 for several hours at a recent event in Prague, and found it to be game-of-the-year worthy with some of the most impressive open-world gameplay I've experienced in a long, long time.

A few weeks after STALKER 2 drops, we get the hotly-anticipated Indiana Jones and the Great Circle. Developed by Machine Games of Wolfenstein: The New Order fame, Indiana Jones is shaping up incredibly nicely too. I wouldn't typically be so bullish on Xbox's upcoming games line-up had I not actually played these games for myself. Indiana Jones is absolutely fantastic, dripping with thoughtful authenticity and oddly infectious immersive sim-style adventuring. There's also Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024, which looks set to delight fans of the world's most legendary simulation game.

I say I wouldn't typically be so bullish because Xbox has typically been somewhat inconsistent with its game launches. They have sporadically amazing games, like Forza Horizon 3, 4, and 5, and then deep craters like Redfall, experimental "niche" games like Pentiment, and arguably disappointing games like Hellblade 2, and Minecraft Legends. But increasingly, it seems like Xbox Game Studios is hitting its stride. Identifying STALKER 2 as a worthy game to pull into a timed exclusivity deal, coupled with Xbox Game Pass deals for things like Genshin Impact and Clair Obscur showcases a continued willingness to deliver for subscribers. First party acquisitions of yesteryear seem ready to deliver in a big way too, with South of Midnight from Compulsion, Avowed from the impressively consistent Obsidian, with Undead Labs' State of Decay 3 enjoying a bigger team than ever to build its apocalypse simulator. Microsoft already shared its line up for 2025 during the Xbox Showcase 2024 last June, but our sources indicate that Microsoft has a couple of additional tricks up its sleeve for next year as well to maintain the strong momentum it has with content right now.

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It's time to put Xbox fears to bed, and new hardware reveals next year could do it

A lot of the fear and confusion around Xbox's platform has revolved around confidence in its hardware range. While some were certainly more tribalistic in their anger about Xbox putting its games onto PlayStation, there's a cold logic to the idea that if fewer people find the hardware compelling, fewer developers will make games, meaning fewer people will buy hardware — a death spiral, much like Windows Phone endured in the past. So far, however, there's no evidence to suggest any of this is taking place. Xbox console platforms have enjoyed record user engagement, year-over-year increases in transactions for third-party published games, and improved interest from major publishers that previously felt content to sit on PlayStation and other competing platforms. If Xbox wasn't in the game, we most certainly wouldn't be seeing Genshin Impact, Final Fantasy, and Death Stranding come across to the platform.

There's always work to be done, though. I think Microsoft could (and should) work on its messaging at times. The fact they called out Indiana Jones specifically as an Xbox exclusive, then announced it for PlayStation in 2025 at Gamescom with some added fanfare doesn't communicate fairly to fans and customers. The Xbox console platform has also not seen meaningful improvements and upgrades on the software side at the same cadence that it used to, with most updates pertaining to minor fixes and tweaks here and there. A lot of the investment seems to be falling on PC and its attempts to crack mobile, which naturally many core Xbox console players aren't necessarily interested in, but that could be about to change.

Microsoft announced plans to bring bring-your-own Xbox games to Xbox Cloud Gaming platforms years ago, and we're supposed to be getting it for real some time this month. There's also strong rumors that Xbox is working on a native gaming handheld, allowing you to take your Xbox games further afield than was previously ever possible, while also potentially landing all-new users in the process too.

The video game industry has gone through some incredible turmoil over the last year. Layoffs were rife, player spend overall has been rocky, and more than ever, users are moving away from variety gaming in favor of forever service-type games like Fortnite. There are also big question marks over the affordability of consoles and gaming hardware in the future, with America's president elect promising to impose tariffs on imports from China. There's also anxiety about the role AI platforms like OpenAI might play in the future of gaming, too.

Microsoft, armed with its own forever games like Warcraft, Call of Duty, and Candy Crush and deep investments in hardware engineering, AI technology, and global server infrastructure is well-positioned to navigate the storm. I just hope there'll continue to be room on the boat for its core users that helped to make Xbox what it is today.

Early Black Friday deal

Xbox Series X 1 TB Carbon Black: was $499 now $449 at Best Buy

Our experience: Windows Central review ⭐⭐⭐⭐

For Black Friday, Microsoft has cut the price of the Xbox Series X down by $50 this holiday season, netting you a tidy saving. The Xbox Series X is Microsoft's 4K console, delivering crisp visuals across hundreds of titles.

👉See at: Best Buy | Amazon