PlayStation's live service mishaps spotlight the one area Xbox is undeniably dominating its rival
As PlayStation's live service initiative continues stumbling, it highlights a growing disparity between the firm and a multiplatform Xbox.
PlayStation was once aiming to have 12 first-party live service games all operating by 2026, with revenue from these games providing over half of Sony Interactive Entertainment's revenue.
Of course, Sony's thought process back in 2022 — the majority of its games are big and increasingly expensive single-player titles that don't generate recurring revenue, so shore up and invest to fortify the multiplayer side of things — is reasonable enough.
The company did have some existing live service franchises in the form of Polyphony Digital's Gran Turismo racing games and San Diego Studio's MLB games, but it wanted to expand well beyond that, even bringing in Bungie as a full multiplatform developer while bringing live service PlayStation Studios games day one to Windows PC.
Yet years down the line from this original claim, it's abundantly clear that this isn't going to happen. A bevy of studio closures and game cancelations have thrown this initiative off course, leading to a number of questions about what's left. To set the stage, here's a quick recap of every live service project from PlayStation that we know of and what has befallen over the last few years:
- Arrowhead Game Studios - Helldivers 2 - Released
- Bend Studio's game - Canceled
- Bluepoint Games' God of War - Canceled
- Bungie's Marathon - In development
- Deviation's game - Canceled, studio closed*
- Firewalk Studios' Concord - Released, un-released, studio closed
- Firesprite's (reported) Twisted Metal reboot - Canceled
- Guerrilla Games' Horizon co-op game - in development
- NCSoft Horizon MMO - Canceled
- Haven's Fairgame$ - In development
- London Studio's fantasy game - Canceled, studio closed
- Naughty Dog's The Last of Us Online - Canceled
- Neon Koi's mobile action game - Canceled, studio closed
- Unannounced studio's (reported) Gummy Bears - In development
*PlayStation hired Jason Blundell, one of Deviation's founders, at a new unannounced studio, so it's possible this project still exists in some form.
With at least eight games canceled (including the un-released Concord), things haven't exactly gone smoothly. These rampant closures spell out a clear problem, one that seems to have reached a peak with the recent news that Bend Studio (the team that crafted the single-player open-world game Days Gone) and Bluepoint Games (known for remakes of single-player titles like Shadow of the Colossus and Demon's Souls) were both working on now-canceled live service games, including a live service God of War title.
The bright spot in the whole endeavour is obviously Helldivers 2, a game I was looking forward to and bullish on pre-launch, but that still managed to surprise me. With a combination of amazing gameplay systems that combine in unexpected ways, Helldivers 2 rocketed up in popularity, selling over 12 million copies as of May 2024.
It's a complicated problem to tackle, made all the more difficult by Microsoft's repeated investments into the live service space (such as its eye-popping acquisition of Activision Blizzard King) and newfound willingness to bring its Xbox games to other platforms. Call of Duty was never going to be anything but multiplatform, but with Rare's Sea of Thieves now on PlayStation and more games to come soon, the world of service games looks increasingly difficult to break into. There are rumors that even iconic Xbox franchises like Halo and Forza are next to make the leap too, potentially challenging Sony's own efforts with shooters and racers, such as Gran Turismo, on its own turf.
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PlayStation naturally gets a sales cut of any Xbox games and microtransactions bought on its platform, but as more and more games arrive, the total volume could become a threat, as players may increasingly play Xbox games over anything that PlayStation launches. The more ingrained these Xbox games get across the board, the harder it will be to break the audience away to try something else. Microsoft is expected to be working on some sort of cross-platform social interface for all of its games, similar to what is already available in titles like Call of Duty and Diablo 4 via Battle.net and Activision's home-grown systems. Replacing these with a centralized Xbox-branded system could become an uncomfortable trojan horse for PlayStation, as some of its most popular titles are, in fact, owned by Microsoft.
A path forward to success
None of this means that it's all doom and gloom or that there's no path forward. While only a small handful of PlayStation's live service games remain, those that are still on the way for now seem to have plenty of exciting potential.
I'm intrigued by what Bungie is working on with its Marathon reboot, which is supposedly also coming to Xbox, by the way. It's been so long since that studio shipped something that wasn't a part of Destiny, and the art direction shown in the reveal trailer is utterly striking. Hopefully we'll be learning about that one soon.
I'm particularly interested in seeing what Guerrilla and Horizon multiplayer offering looks like. Fighting giant robot dinosaurs is already fun, but doing it in co-op could be even more engaging, especially given the success of the recent Monster Hunter games. If it feels fun and dynamic to go after machines as a team, then I have no doubt Guerrilla could have a huge success on their hands. Literally as of publishing, another Horizon multiplayer project from NCSoft was reported also canceled, once again spotlighting the uphill struggle Sony finds themselves in.
On-going games and subscription services are great ways to subsidize and offset risk in what has proven to be a volatile industry of late. Sony can enjoy the fact that it is the number one console platform for games like Fortnite and Microsoft's own Minecraft and Call of Duty — but having your own service game layer is also a great way to offset the need to depend on other companies. Relying on external companies to keep delivering is a potentially risky bet, as Microsoft itself has repeatedly learned to its own detriment. Which, by the way, is a large reason why it invested an absurd $72 billion into picking up Activision-Blizzard in the first place. Sony doesn't have that kind of capital on hand ... so, more home-grown innovations like Helldivers 2 would be ideal. But after Concord, can Sony still stomach the risk?
This is one area that, at least for now, Microsoft has a clear advantage.
Samuel Tolbert is a freelance writer covering gaming news, previews, reviews, interviews and different aspects of the gaming industry, specifically focusing on Xbox and PC gaming on Windows Central. You can find him on Twitter @SamuelTolbert.
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Lurking_Lurker_Lurks Way back when the Bungie purchase announcement came from Sony, I had thought (especially based on the details of the deal), at least in regards to gaming it was largely a future proof for live service efforts. I still think that, but clearly one experienced studio, which is itself having reported issues currently, isn't going to help transition Sony to live service games overnight. Really that's just not possible. Live service games are far harder and more of an investment than publishers give them credit for. I don't think Sony will never crack the code, but it will be a while off.Reply
Sony had made single player narrative driven games their bread and butter, and it has worked tremendously to keep fans happy and provide them a level of critical prestige. However, even Sony knows that they are projecting power more with issues on the horizon. Unlike Nintendo they aren't controlling costs and unlike Microsoft they aren't doing a ton to expand on other platforms, but like both consoles in the market they aren't exactly seeing masses of new gamers. Xbox has always done really well with social multiplayer games and down the line live service games. That was before purchases like Mojang (Minecraft) and ABK (pretty sure all ABK does at this point is live service one way or another). At the same time they've bolstered their single player showings and have really rounded out their first party lineup.
Sony is still getting there and in the meantime development costs keep increasing and first party releases have really lapsed. It's not even just first party live service exclusives which have struggled. Third party ventures like Babylon's Fall (I was excited for this one myself and quickly saw why Platnium Games' scalebound never went anywhere) barely lasted as well. The issue with live service is that you have to hamper down and support the game long term and you have to do this regardless of if it is an instant hit or not (and most aren't) to just build an audience. Those are difficult expenses to justify. Sony should be incredibly glad gamers are as entrenched as they are, and that they are attached to exclusives with Xbox's multiplatform strategy not going over well among gaming journalists and vocal gamers online. Because in a lot of ways their business practices as a gaming company are very shaky right now. I was not aware of just how much money had gone down the drain internally with all the canceled live service projects. Studios like the one for Concord were specifically bought for a live service game and then got shutdown when said game failed to deliver. Microsoft buying ABK and having the likes of COD is a whole different beast, but what should be really worrying for Sony is that Microsoft can release a game like Sea of Thieves on Playstation that is several years old at this point and dominate PS charts. A different console fan base less fixated on exclusives would probably really question whether it's a good move for SONY to allow Xbox games on PlayStation.
Once away from the "console wars" nonsense, opinions about certain games become clear with how they perform on the platform, and Sony only gets a 30% cut. If Microsoft can manage to properly shove Xbox logos front and center across all their first party games (including COD) or have a unified Xbox interface on all first party games (including COD) then as a brand they might really shake things up on Playstation itself. The reality is that on the PlayStation store right now, a LOT of the top games are Xbox owned. Meanwhile on the Sony side they've released a handful of true new single player games (as in not counting remasters) and have canceled or pulled the plug on a ton of live service games. I don't think the company is going anywhere and again I do think one day they'll evolve to match the gaming landscape as it is (for better or worse), but the massive divergence in strategies and positions of Xbox and Playstation should be noted. Using metrics of console exclusives Xbox is shooting themselves in the foot, and yet looking on the business side for growing as a gaming company one could say the same of Sony who continues to drag their heels on multiplatform releases and fumble with live service and multiplayer games. -
fjtorres5591 Sony's issues remind me (in a less deadly way) of their zip-zagging strategies in the ebook reader "wars" as ebooks hit the mainstream. Early on they were market leaders and the benchmark for competitors. When Amazon introduced KINDLE they made sure to replicate all the Sony features and add one all their own (direct wireless store access) all at a Sony comparable price. Then B&N, late to the party, switched the business model to near-cost hardware and walled-garden content store. Sony stuck with their model selling a "premium, higher quality" reader at what became double the prive of the competition just as the reduced hardware costs evolved the market from a high end niche to a mainstream low-cost segment.Reply
On the content side Sony had started with a proprietary ebook format and a walled garden store but pivoted to an interoperable format and open store, expecting the market to go open like PCs just as Apple and the big multinational vendors "coordinated" to protect pbook sales and limit ebooks to a high end 25% of the book world. (The DOJ took note and acted.) This effectively killed white label interoperative ebook stores, leaving Sony and Google as the main backers of the open commercial format.
So, to summarize: when the market wanted cheap access to mainstream ebooks, Sony sold a premium product and once the market plateau'ed they belatedly pivoted to a cheap basic flag-bearer (and decent enough) reader just as Amazon, Kobo, and B&N were introducing high feature premium models.
They lost sight of the real world market and over-valued brand value.
The hardware was good but not great and lacked the features the market valued while proving features the market didn't value at that time. Which they then dropped as the competition offered them.
They zigged when they should've zagged, and vice versa. In the end they just dropped out of the consumer reader market.
Gaming?
Flash back to March 1999 when Sony introduced EVER QUEST the first commercially successful MMORG usi g a 3D graphics engine. Successful being an understatement. It spawned several derivatives but sony sold off the division and IP in 2015 as it committed totally to the PS4 and one and done single player games.
Just as DESTINY opened the door for Live Service games to eat massive chunks of the entire gaming market.
Two years later, Sony started work on what became Concord. And five years later they started funding a dozen live service games and bought Bungie.
Since then, a range of live service games from the likes of Square-Enix, Sega, Ubisoft, EA, and other have been started, cancelled, or died a quick death. And Sony has, so far, cancelled 8 of the promised 12 and closed several of the associated studios with big layoffs at Bungie and elsewhere.
So, just as with ereaders, they lost sight of the market, zigged when they should've zagged and wasted a ton of money between the Concord disaster, a clear overpay on Bungie, and whatever they had invested over three years on the other cancelled projects.
It won't be deadly as with ereaders, but it has put the company Playstation cash cow, in a tight corner. And the faux pas comes at a bad time as game development (and studio burn rates) are increasing continuously, Nintendo and MS are expanding they content offerings, and PC gaming content sales are booming, while at the same time Sony's flagship exclusives (first party and paid third party) are seriously underperforming. Recent public bookkeeping is calculating that even the top selling exclusives have only tapped 6-8% of the PS installed base. Their highly touted 2024 GOTY game may have hit 2%. Maybe.
Consider that something like 2/3 of all money spent on Playstations is going to third party games and a majority of that is going to the legacy multiplatform live service games.
As for XBOX, has anybody even bothered to count the number of successful live service games in the XBox Catalog? Or tried adding up the number of active users?
Finally, MS has long targeted releasing 4 first party exclusives a year and came close last year, depending on how you count their releases, and look to possible double that this year.
Sony is promising one first party exclusive teach year. Not just this year. And a lot of their third party satraps aren't taking their exclusivity bribes anymore. Their games are too expensive and selling too slowly, if at all, to forgo Nintendo and Xbox any more.
Finally, considering it takes 5 years or so to cook up a AAA game these days the studios that were working on the cancelled projects are unlikely to resurface this decade. That is about a third of Sony's studio count.
Yeah, XBOX is dominating in one area.
And a few more the gaming media has forgotten to consider.
XBOX is not stopping there. -
fjtorres5591 One more thing...Reply
THE XBOX Ahab just announced she is leaving the FTC this month.
With Ubisoft hanging by a "SHADOW-y" thread and exploring a sale of IPs and units, don't be surprised to see Spencer keeping his checkbook handy. SPLINTER CELL comes to mind...
Maybe RAYMAN...
And let's not forget Microsoft's mobile goals. -
fjtorres5591
No need to look further than FALLOUT 76, which looks nothing like the NPC-less PvP launch disaster and its recent five year anniversary brag of 20M activer players. (Thank Amazon and five years of regular updates, buff, nerfs, and pivots).Lurking_Lurker_Lurks said:Sony is still getting there and in the meantime development costs keep increasing and first party releases have really lapsed. It's not even just first party live service exclusives which have struggled. Third party ventures like Babylon's Fall (I was excited for this one myself and quickly saw why Platnium Games' scalebound never went anywhere) barely lasted as well. The issue with live service is that you have to hamper down and support the game long term and you have to do this regardless of if it is an instant hit or not (and most aren't) to just build an audience. Those are difficult expenses to justify.
Beyond that, bear in mind that Sony's exclusives are being exposed as all PR and critic hype with so-so sales. Yes, 6 million sales for Spider-Man2 is pretty good, but less so when you factor in the development cost and Disney fees. Hence, no DLC and an early PC port.
Sony wants live service games because 30% of the third party games their faithful are actually playing is not supporting them with the net they need to keep the pipeline full. The time to invest in live service was 2014 not 2017, much less 2022.
And going after live service now, for 2026-28 at the earliest, might be more good money after bad considering game trends. There is good reason MS has been fretting over TENCENT rather than Nintendo and Sony. Consider RIVALS the canary in the coal mine if you weren't already aware of their reach.
Sony may be misreading the market yet again.